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rise and fall of indian rupee

The Fall and Rise of the Indian Rupee

by Holistic 3 Comments | Filed Under: Investments

Unlike Humpty Dumpty, Rupee was not exactly sitting on a wall when it fell. However, the aftermath of the fall was somewhat similar in both cases as the ‘king’s men’ (the government) were at a loss as to how to put them back on track. Ultimately though, the Rupee has had better luck than that of Humpty Dumpty as it has managed to get timely attention from the doctor (RBI governor) which led to its gaining a lifeline.

Factors that contributed for Rupee’s Fall

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Every incident occurs due to the presence of one or more factors which may directly or indirectly influence it. The story of the fall of the Rupee can also be linked to a host of elements which may not apparently look to be attributable to the fall, but has actually contributed to its drop. Let us look at some of such factors which went on to make the Rupee vulnerable:

1. Populist schemes unleashed by the government has resulted in the fiscal deficit threatening to

mounting beyond the 4.9% of last year.

2. In anticipation of a rising fiscal gap, the rating agencies have downgraded India’s ratings.

3. US Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben S Bernanke, is expected to announce certain policies on September 18, 2013 at the monetary policy meeting. Along with this piece of news, the anticipation regarding the upcoming elections in Germany is expected to influence the health of the Rupee.

Factors that contributed for Rupee’s Recovery

Optimists allowed themselves a temporary sigh of relief when the new RBI governor implemented certain immediate measures with a view to arrest the fall of the currency. The Rupee staged a recovery and climbed back to Rs.63.84 from the despairing depths of Rs. 68.80 to the dollar ($).

Whether Indians can hope to remain optimistic about the Rupee in the long run will depend on the following very pertinent factors:

1. The kind of measures Rajan and the RBI are going to take in the near future. Already the start has been made in this direction, it is to be seen whether it will be sustained.

2. Whether the Government will contemplate a much needed increase in price of subsidized diesel and will at the same time willingly reduce non-essential imports.

3. It seems that US will refrain from going on a collision course with Syria, thanks to the proposed intervention by Russia to rein in Damascus’s chemical weaponry. This has a direct bearing on the Brent crude prices which have softened after this development. India stands to gain by the stability in crude prices.

4. Curbs on gold imports by the government has already brought about a reduction in trade deficit from $17 billion around January 2013 to a shade about $12 billion in June-July 2013.

5. The basket of currencies including the Euro firmed up against the dollar and this is expected to add shine to the Indian Rupee also.

6. Fibonacci Retracement, a technical tool used to predict currency movements, foretells that the Rupee will remain stable at around the Rs.63 mark.

Some Important points to note:

1. The present yield of 8.40% on 10 year bonds will attract FIIs to buy debt. It was primarily due to their sustained sale that the Rupee had taken a beating.

2. The global recovery has begun and the Eurozone proved this fact by recording an expansion of 0.3% in the second quarter of this year.

3. The US job market is beginning to look brighter as unemployment is down to 7.5%. Positive sentiments are emerging based on the expectation that the American economy is going to be hale and hearty once again.

Opportunities and Threats for Rupee

At this juncture what are the opportunities and threats which have emerged as a result of the rupee saga?

Well the opportunities lie in the fact that the external debt to GDP ratio stands at 22%, and this is much below the level of alarm, implying than India can raise foreign debt. A weaker rupee also implies that exports will be cheaper.

The threats which can occur at this juncture may evolve from the emotional nature of Indian market which can fluctuate excessively due to a bad or a good phase or piece of information. The spiraling subsidy bill of the petroleum sector continues to be a matter of concern.

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Comments

  1. Nathan says

    February 28, 2014 at 4:36 pm

    Bless you for your own insight and knowledge with this subject.
    You’re a real, unbiased professional.

    Reply
  2. Muthu Krishnan says

    February 14, 2014 at 11:00 am

    Good site you have here.. It’s hard to finԀ quality writing lіke yοurs theѕe days.

    I seriously аppreciate this blog!
    Ƭake care!!

    Reply
  3. Shanthanu says

    February 11, 2014 at 8:42 pm

    Pretty! This was an incredibly wonderful article.
    Thanks for providing this info.

    Reply

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Jey S
Jey S
24. September, 2021.
I have been using Holistic Investment Planners for the last three years. Mr. Srinivasavaradhan answered all my questions and doubts very patiently during the first free consultation. I was able to clearly define my short-, medium- and long-term goals once I signed up for the comprehensive plan and got their investment plan suggestion to achieve my goals. They are very polite and highly professional whenever I contact them for any queries or make investments. They never pressurize you to invest on their recommended financial products. I would have been lost money by investing directly without their help since I do not have time and knowledge about different financial products. Risk planning is also done as part of financial planning. Truly, they are holistic planners when it comes to your financial planning. They help you to define your life goals, understand your financial resources and establish a plan to invest towards reaching those goals. They do review your plan as you progress to make sure that you are on correct path to achieve those goals. Kudos to the team and keep up the good work!!! I am happy that I found holistic investment planners for my financial planning and management.
aksaswadkar
aksaswadkar
24. September, 2021.
I was about to retire and really not understanding how to invest money to have financial freedom and fulfilling my goals. Was desperately searching on internet way out and fortunately came across Holistic Investment Planners. I read number of articles on their website and realized that this is the agency which I want and engaged their services for my retirement planning. It is an excellent experience to be associated with Holistic. Right from day one our interaction was fantastic and they gave me such a wonderful plan that I had never imagined. I am fortunate enough to be in the client list of Holistic. I have recommended Holistic to my friends as well.
Lionel Faber
Lionel Faber
16. September, 2021.
I've been availing their services for the past year. They are highly knowledgeable in the field and are very patient with all doubts and queries. Personalized financial planning is provided keeping your short term, medium term and long term goals in mind. They do not pressurize you to purchase schemes of their choice. They provide their input and suggestions and leave the decision up to you which shows their honesty and high principle.
Sridhar
Sridhar
8. September, 2021.
Financial planning brings peace in life. Holistic Investment have supported in arriving financial plan based on future goals. My investments are regular since then. They are professionals in their business, will recommend others.
Nitesh Agrawal
Nitesh Agrawal
6. September, 2021.
I have been using Holistic Investment Planners from last one year. The journey has been fantastic. Being a finance person myself I always thought we can look after and plan own finances also. However, due to lack of time and deciplain the things are not always as desired. After joining with Holistic Investment for the first time Icame to know the Financial goals and quantified them. Some dreams were unrealistic based on the earnings and savings so had a reality check. Also got the information and deciplain of investing on regular and more rewarding securities. I definetly suggest to use Holistic Investment Planners. They are professionals, available and hear youor full story before presenting plans. They are flexile in the sense if there are some urgent deviations required, they help to plan the same. For all professionals/individuals I would suggest using professional help of Holistic Investment Planners for best results in long term investment and financial goals achivements. Last advise will be to start early in your life. It really pays well to start in the beginning itself else the dreams needs to adjust :)
Swetha Vasanth
Swetha Vasanth
6. September, 2021.
This is my first year service with the Holistic Team and I would say that they are very much helpful in creating a financial plan and follow ups during the year. I would definitely suggest them if anyone who is willing to proceed with their savings professionally.
Joseph Mathias
Joseph Mathias
6. September, 2021.
I came to know about Holistic Investment Planners online while searching for different investment ideas. Once I contacted them the journey was very smooth. Mr. Ramalingam explained all the aspects of Financial planning in detail and it opened my mind. I realized how important it is to have a Financial planning. Mr. Rajan suggested all the requirements as per my goals and made a Investment plan keeping in mind of my goals. I started my Investment journey with them. I wish I had done it some years back then it would have been in a different level. Review meetings were held every six month to check the implementation of the plan and check the results as per the requirements and to check if any changes required. Overall it was a good experience with Holistic Investment team and would like to continue in the years to come.
Srinvas Kannan
Srinvas Kannan
30. July, 2021.
I came across Holistic investment planners almost 5-6 years back, but I did not have the trust since I had met a few of them who did not sound promising. Then I started investing through a financial advisor of my friend. After 4 years of investing the returns were very low. I was disappointed and started looking for financial advisors when I came across Holistic investment. I had a detailed discussion about my goals and the way they would approach achieving my goal before deciding to switch my investments to them. After a thorough analysis of my then existing portfolios, they suggested new ones and we zeroed-in on 6 schemes/funds where our investment would be split. I am glad I made the decision of switching over and taking Holistic planner's advise, my returns are handsome and I only wish I could have taken their help/advise 5 years back itself. Neverthless, I would like to recommend their services for investment and financial advise if someone is serious about their investments.
Shivaram Andiappan Selvaraj
Shivaram Andiappan Selvaraj
3. July, 2021.
I got a free first time consultation. I got my doubts resolved. They also gave additional advises for investment planning which was also useful.
Nellai B
Nellai B
26. June, 2021.
I have been associated with them for the past three years. They are very professional and polite in answering all our questions. I have complete trust in their suggestions. I strongly recommend for anyone. I am looking forward to have strong and successful association with them.
Google rating score: 4.4 of 5,
based on 61 reviews

Google Reviews

Jey S
Jey S
24. September, 2021.
I have been using Holistic Investment Planners for the last three years. Mr. Srinivasavaradhan answered all my questions and doubts very patiently during the first free consultation. I was able to clearly define my short-, medium- and long-term goals once I signed up for the comprehensive plan and got their investment plan suggestion to achieve my goals. They are very polite and highly professional whenever I contact them for any queries or make investments. They never pressurize you to invest on their recommended financial products. I would have been lost money by investing directly without their help since I do not have time and knowledge about different financial products. Risk planning is also done as part of financial planning. Truly, they are holistic planners when it comes to your financial planning. They help you to define your life goals, understand your financial resources and establish a plan to invest towards reaching those goals. They do review your plan as you progress to make sure that you are on correct path to achieve those goals. Kudos to the team and keep up the good work!!! I am happy that I found holistic investment planners for my financial planning and management.
aksaswadkar
aksaswadkar
24. September, 2021.
I was about to retire and really not understanding how to invest money to have financial freedom and fulfilling my goals. Was desperately searching on internet way out and fortunately came across Holistic Investment Planners. I read number of articles on their website and realized that this is the agency which I want and engaged their services for my retirement planning. It is an excellent experience to be associated with Holistic. Right from day one our interaction was fantastic and they gave me such a wonderful plan that I had never imagined. I am fortunate enough to be in the client list of Holistic. I have recommended Holistic to my friends as well.
Lionel Faber
Lionel Faber
16. September, 2021.
I've been availing their services for the past year. They are highly knowledgeable in the field and are very patient with all doubts and queries. Personalized financial planning is provided keeping your short term, medium term and long term goals in mind. They do not pressurize you to purchase schemes of their choice. They provide their input and suggestions and leave the decision up to you which shows their honesty and high principle.
Sridhar
Sridhar
8. September, 2021.
Financial planning brings peace in life. Holistic Investment have supported in arriving financial plan based on future goals. My investments are regular since then. They are professionals in their business, will recommend others.
Nitesh Agrawal
Nitesh Agrawal
6. September, 2021.
I have been using Holistic Investment Planners from last one year. The journey has been fantastic. Being a finance person myself I always thought we can look after and plan own finances also. However, due to lack of time and deciplain the things are not always as desired. After joining with Holistic Investment for the first time Icame to know the Financial goals and quantified them. Some dreams were unrealistic based on the earnings and savings so had a reality check. Also got the information and deciplain of investing on regular and more rewarding securities. I definetly suggest to use Holistic Investment Planners. They are professionals, available and hear youor full story before presenting plans. They are flexile in the sense if there are some urgent deviations required, they help to plan the same. For all professionals/individuals I would suggest using professional help of Holistic Investment Planners for best results in long term investment and financial goals achivements. Last advise will be to start early in your life. It really pays well to start in the beginning itself else the dreams needs to adjust :)
Swetha Vasanth
Swetha Vasanth
6. September, 2021.
This is my first year service with the Holistic Team and I would say that they are very much helpful in creating a financial plan and follow ups during the year. I would definitely suggest them if anyone who is willing to proceed with their savings professionally.
Joseph Mathias
Joseph Mathias
6. September, 2021.
I came to know about Holistic Investment Planners online while searching for different investment ideas. Once I contacted them the journey was very smooth. Mr. Ramalingam explained all the aspects of Financial planning in detail and it opened my mind. I realized how important it is to have a Financial planning. Mr. Rajan suggested all the requirements as per my goals and made a Investment plan keeping in mind of my goals. I started my Investment journey with them. I wish I had done it some years back then it would have been in a different level. Review meetings were held every six month to check the implementation of the plan and check the results as per the requirements and to check if any changes required. Overall it was a good experience with Holistic Investment team and would like to continue in the years to come.
Srinvas Kannan
Srinvas Kannan
30. July, 2021.
I came across Holistic investment planners almost 5-6 years back, but I did not have the trust since I had met a few of them who did not sound promising. Then I started investing through a financial advisor of my friend. After 4 years of investing the returns were very low. I was disappointed and started looking for financial advisors when I came across Holistic investment. I had a detailed discussion about my goals and the way they would approach achieving my goal before deciding to switch my investments to them. After a thorough analysis of my then existing portfolios, they suggested new ones and we zeroed-in on 6 schemes/funds where our investment would be split. I am glad I made the decision of switching over and taking Holistic planner's advise, my returns are handsome and I only wish I could have taken their help/advise 5 years back itself. Neverthless, I would like to recommend their services for investment and financial advise if someone is serious about their investments.
Shivaram Andiappan Selvaraj
Shivaram Andiappan Selvaraj
3. July, 2021.
I got a free first time consultation. I got my doubts resolved. They also gave additional advises for investment planning which was also useful.
Nellai B
Nellai B
26. June, 2021.
I have been associated with them for the past three years. They are very professional and polite in answering all our questions. I have complete trust in their suggestions. I strongly recommend for anyone. I am looking forward to have strong and successful association with them.
Google rating score: 4.4 of 5,
based on 61 reviews

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